While all eyes are on AI, construction is being overlooked.
AI is more capable than most people think. Deep research, cowork, agents are coming.
Which office jobs it will take. Which skills will still matter. Whether a university degree still makes sense. Whether the career path your parents told you to follow is still the path worth following.
The fear is real, and the data behind it cannot be overlooked. I get it.
But I want to point at something most people in this conversation are missing entirely.
While everyone is staring at the disruption, one of the most accessible business opportunities of this decade are quietly closing down. Not because it failed. Because its owner is retiring, and nobody is stepping in.
The fear is legitimate. But it is pointing people in the wrong direction.
The office job market is genuinely under pressure.
127,000 tech workers laid off in the US in 2025
Amazon, Intel, Microsoft all cited AI explicitly when announcing cuts
Graduate tech roles in the UK fell 46% in 2024, with a projected further 53% drop by 2026
Displaced workers now spend an average of 6-7 months finding a new role
These are not struggling companies trimming costs. These are the most profitable businesses ever built, restructuring because software now handles what new hires used to do. The entry-level tier is being erased first.
If you are a high earner watching this happen around you, the instinct is to adapt - learn AI tools, upgrade your skills, stay relevant inside the system that is changing. That instinct makes sense.
But there is another instinct worth considering. What if the disruption in one direction creates a real opening somewhere else?
The construction economy is running out of people.
While the office market contracts, the construction sector cannot find workers.
The US needs 723,000 new construction workers every year just to keep pace with current demand. The UK needs 251,500 by 2028. In Australia, the vacancy fill rate for trade jobs collapsed from 54% in 2020 to 29% in 2023 - meaning for every ten electrician or plumber postings, only three get filled.
This is not a temporary shortage. It is structural.
The generation that built these skills is retiring. In the UK, the average electrician leaves the workforce at 48. They take thirty years of knowledge with them. The pipeline of replacements was effectively closed for two decades while the cultural narrative pointed everyone toward a degree and a laptop.
The earnings math has quietly flipped.
Senior electrician in New York: $100,000-$120,000/year
Marketing manager in New York: $94,000-$112,000/year
Electrician automation risk: 22%
Electrician student debt: zero
Behind this sits demand that is not going away. New York’s Local Law 97 mandates building emissions upgrades across thousands of properties. The EU Green Deal targets 30 million heat pump installations by 2030. Housing deficits across every major Western city guarantee construction demand regardless of what the broader economy does.
Scarcity of supply. Locked-in demand. Real pricing power.
The opportunity is not to reinvent. It is to take over.
Here is where I think the conversation usually stops short.
Most people hear “trades” and picture a career change. Learning from scratch. Years of apprenticeship. That is not what I am pointing at.
The more interesting lens is the one of a businessman who looks at this structural gap and asks a different question: where are the businesses that already operate in this sector, and what happens to them when their owners retire?
The answer is uncomfortable. In Canada, 76% of small business owners plan to exit within the next decade. Only 9% have a formal succession plan. Across Europe the picture is similar. Profitable, solvent businesses built over decades are closing not because they failed, but because their owners are approaching retirement with no buyer in sight, no family member stepping in, and no real exit plan.
With them goes the knowledge. The client relationships. The team. The reputation built over thirty years.
This is the opening.
You do not need to know how to wire a building or install a heat pump. The technical expertise already exists inside the company. The job is to step in before the lights go out - to preserve that knowledge, modernize the operation, and build the systems that allow the business to grow beyond its founder.
One person brings the business thinking. The other brings the craft. That combination is what most of these businesses are missing.
There is one more layer worth mentioning. Many retiring owners hold the commercial property their business operates from. A well-structured acquisition can include a leaseback arrangement - one transaction, two simultaneous value plays. The market for this profile is thin simply because most aspiring entrepreneurs are not looking in this direction.
Low competition. Structural demand. Entry at a price that reflects the fact that most people still think entrepreneurship requires inventing something new.
Here is what it can look like.
A regional HVAC and ventilation company in my neighborhood was founded with limited capital and no degree. Over roughly a decade it grew to 23 employees and CHF 7.5 million in annual revenue - about CHF 326’000,- per employee, a level of operational efficiency most service businesses never reach.
No venture capital. No reinvention narrative. A physical service, executed consistently, in a market where demand never went away.
In January 2023, the company was acquired by a listed Swiss building services group running a consolidation strategy across the fragmented regional market. The deal was structured in cash and shares, giving the founder participation in the acquiring group’s future upside.
The business LKE Haustechnik did not need to disrupt anything. It needed to exist, reliably, in a market with real structural tailwinds.
The quiet move most people are not making.
AI is genuinely changing the rules. I am not dismissing that.
But I think the fixation on adapting to the digital economy is pulling attention away from something older and, right now, arguably more valuable. Businesses built on physical skills, serving demand that will not disappear, are closing because their owners are retiring with nobody to pass them to.
That is a supply and demand tension. And supply/demand tensions have opportunities.
Building a business does not always mean starting from zero in a market that is already crowded. Sometimes the better move is stepping into something already built, in a sector most ambitious people are walking past.
If this made you think of something - a business you have noticed, an owner you know who is approaching retirement, or an idea you have been sitting on - hit reply. I would like to hear where your head goes.
Which office jobs it will take. Which skills will still matter. Whether a university degree still makes sense. Whether the career path your parents told you to follow is still the path worth following.
The fear is real, and the data behind it cannot be overlooked. I get it.
But I want to point at something most people in this conversation are missing entirely.
While everyone is staring at the disruption, one of the most accessible business opportunities of this decade are quietly closing down. Not because it failed. Because its owner is retiring, and nobody is stepping in.
The fear is legitimate. But it is pointing people in the wrong direction.
The office job market is genuinely under pressure.
127,000 tech workers laid off in the US in 2025
Amazon, Intel, Microsoft all cited AI explicitly when announcing cuts
Graduate tech roles in the UK fell 46% in 2024, with a projected further 53% drop by 2026
Displaced workers now spend an average of 6-7 months finding a new role
These are not struggling companies trimming costs. These are the most profitable businesses ever built, restructuring because software now handles what new hires used to do. The entry-level tier is being erased first.
If you are a high earner watching this happen around you, the instinct is to adapt - learn AI tools, upgrade your skills, stay relevant inside the system that is changing. That instinct makes sense.
But there is another instinct worth considering. What if the disruption in one direction creates a real opening somewhere else?
The construction economy is running out of people.
While the office market contracts, the construction sector cannot find workers.
The US needs 723,000 new construction workers every year just to keep pace with current demand. The UK needs 251,500 by 2028. In Australia, the vacancy fill rate for trade jobs collapsed from 54% in 2020 to 29% in 2023 - meaning for every ten electrician or plumber postings, only three get filled.
This is not a temporary shortage. It is structural.
The generation that built these skills is retiring. In the UK, the average electrician leaves the workforce at 48. They take thirty years of knowledge with them. The pipeline of replacements was effectively closed for two decades while the cultural narrative pointed everyone toward a degree and a laptop.
The earnings math has quietly flipped.
Senior electrician in New York: $100,000-$120,000/year
Marketing manager in New York: $94,000-$112,000/year
Electrician automation risk: 22%
Electrician student debt: zero
Behind this sits demand that is not going away. New York’s Local Law 97 mandates building emissions upgrades across thousands of properties. The EU Green Deal targets 30 million heat pump installations by 2030. Housing deficits across every major Western city guarantee construction demand regardless of what the broader economy does.
Scarcity of supply. Locked-in demand. Real pricing power.
The opportunity is not to reinvent. It is to take over.
Here is where I think the conversation usually stops short.
Most people hear “trades” and picture a career change. Learning from scratch. Years of apprenticeship. That is not what I am pointing at.
The more interesting lens is the one of a businessman who looks at this structural gap and asks a different question: where are the businesses that already operate in this sector, and what happens to them when their owners retire?
The answer is uncomfortable. In Canada, 76% of small business owners plan to exit within the next decade. Only 9% have a formal succession plan. Across Europe the picture is similar. Profitable, solvent businesses built over decades are closing not because they failed, but because their owners are approaching retirement with no buyer in sight, no family member stepping in, and no real exit plan.
With them goes the knowledge. The client relationships. The team. The reputation built over thirty years.
This is the opening.
You do not need to know how to wire a building or install a heat pump. The technical expertise already exists inside the company. The job is to step in before the lights go out - to preserve that knowledge, modernize the operation, and build the systems that allow the business to grow beyond its founder.
One person brings the business thinking. The other brings the craft. That combination is what most of these businesses are missing.
There is one more layer worth mentioning. Many retiring owners hold the commercial property their business operates from. A well-structured acquisition can include a leaseback arrangement - one transaction, two simultaneous value plays. The market for this profile is thin simply because most aspiring entrepreneurs are not looking in this direction.
Low competition. Structural demand. Entry at a price that reflects the fact that most people still think entrepreneurship requires inventing something new.
Here is what it can look like.
A regional HVAC and ventilation company in my neighborhood was founded with limited capital and no degree. Over roughly a decade it grew to 23 employees and CHF 7.5 million in annual revenue - about CHF 326’000,- per employee, a level of operational efficiency most service businesses never reach.
No venture capital. No reinvention narrative. A physical service, executed consistently, in a market where demand never went away.
In January 2023, the company was acquired by a listed Swiss building services group running a consolidation strategy across the fragmented regional market. The deal was structured in cash and shares, giving the founder participation in the acquiring group’s future upside.
The business LKE Haustechnik did not need to disrupt anything. It needed to exist, reliably, in a market with real structural tailwinds.
The quiet move most people are not making.
AI is genuinely changing the rules. I am not dismissing that.
But I think the fixation on adapting to the digital economy is pulling attention away from something older and, right now, arguably more valuable. Businesses built on physical skills, serving demand that will not disappear, are closing because their owners are retiring with nobody to pass them to.
That is a supply and demand tension. And supply/demand tensions have opportunities.
Building a business does not always mean starting from zero in a market that is already crowded. Sometimes the better move is stepping into something already built, in a sector most ambitious people are walking past.
If this made you think of something - a business you have noticed, an owner you know who is approaching retirement, or an idea you have been sitting on - hit reply. I would like to hear where your head goes.
Which office jobs it will take. Which skills will still matter. Whether a university degree still makes sense. Whether the career path your parents told you to follow is still the path worth following.
The fear is real, and the data behind it cannot be overlooked. I get it.
But I want to point at something most people in this conversation are missing entirely.
While everyone is staring at the disruption, one of the most accessible business opportunities of this decade are quietly closing down. Not because it failed. Because its owner is retiring, and nobody is stepping in.
The fear is legitimate. But it is pointing people in the wrong direction.
The office job market is genuinely under pressure.
127,000 tech workers laid off in the US in 2025
Amazon, Intel, Microsoft all cited AI explicitly when announcing cuts
Graduate tech roles in the UK fell 46% in 2024, with a projected further 53% drop by 2026
Displaced workers now spend an average of 6-7 months finding a new role
These are not struggling companies trimming costs. These are the most profitable businesses ever built, restructuring because software now handles what new hires used to do. The entry-level tier is being erased first.
If you are a high earner watching this happen around you, the instinct is to adapt - learn AI tools, upgrade your skills, stay relevant inside the system that is changing. That instinct makes sense.
But there is another instinct worth considering. What if the disruption in one direction creates a real opening somewhere else?
The construction economy is running out of people.
While the office market contracts, the construction sector cannot find workers.
The US needs 723,000 new construction workers every year just to keep pace with current demand. The UK needs 251,500 by 2028. In Australia, the vacancy fill rate for trade jobs collapsed from 54% in 2020 to 29% in 2023 - meaning for every ten electrician or plumber postings, only three get filled.
This is not a temporary shortage. It is structural.
The generation that built these skills is retiring. In the UK, the average electrician leaves the workforce at 48. They take thirty years of knowledge with them. The pipeline of replacements was effectively closed for two decades while the cultural narrative pointed everyone toward a degree and a laptop.
The earnings math has quietly flipped.
Senior electrician in New York: $100,000-$120,000/year
Marketing manager in New York: $94,000-$112,000/year
Electrician automation risk: 22%
Electrician student debt: zero
Behind this sits demand that is not going away. New York’s Local Law 97 mandates building emissions upgrades across thousands of properties. The EU Green Deal targets 30 million heat pump installations by 2030. Housing deficits across every major Western city guarantee construction demand regardless of what the broader economy does.
Scarcity of supply. Locked-in demand. Real pricing power.
The opportunity is not to reinvent. It is to take over.
Here is where I think the conversation usually stops short.
Most people hear “trades” and picture a career change. Learning from scratch. Years of apprenticeship. That is not what I am pointing at.
The more interesting lens is the one of a businessman who looks at this structural gap and asks a different question: where are the businesses that already operate in this sector, and what happens to them when their owners retire?
The answer is uncomfortable. In Canada, 76% of small business owners plan to exit within the next decade. Only 9% have a formal succession plan. Across Europe the picture is similar. Profitable, solvent businesses built over decades are closing not because they failed, but because their owners are approaching retirement with no buyer in sight, no family member stepping in, and no real exit plan.
With them goes the knowledge. The client relationships. The team. The reputation built over thirty years.
This is the opening.
You do not need to know how to wire a building or install a heat pump. The technical expertise already exists inside the company. The job is to step in before the lights go out - to preserve that knowledge, modernize the operation, and build the systems that allow the business to grow beyond its founder.
One person brings the business thinking. The other brings the craft. That combination is what most of these businesses are missing.
There is one more layer worth mentioning. Many retiring owners hold the commercial property their business operates from. A well-structured acquisition can include a leaseback arrangement - one transaction, two simultaneous value plays. The market for this profile is thin simply because most aspiring entrepreneurs are not looking in this direction.
Low competition. Structural demand. Entry at a price that reflects the fact that most people still think entrepreneurship requires inventing something new.
Here is what it can look like.
A regional HVAC and ventilation company in my neighborhood was founded with limited capital and no degree. Over roughly a decade it grew to 23 employees and CHF 7.5 million in annual revenue - about CHF 326’000,- per employee, a level of operational efficiency most service businesses never reach.
No venture capital. No reinvention narrative. A physical service, executed consistently, in a market where demand never went away.
In January 2023, the company was acquired by a listed Swiss building services group running a consolidation strategy across the fragmented regional market. The deal was structured in cash and shares, giving the founder participation in the acquiring group’s future upside.
The business LKE Haustechnik did not need to disrupt anything. It needed to exist, reliably, in a market with real structural tailwinds.
The quiet move most people are not making.
AI is genuinely changing the rules. I am not dismissing that.
But I think the fixation on adapting to the digital economy is pulling attention away from something older and, right now, arguably more valuable. Businesses built on physical skills, serving demand that will not disappear, are closing because their owners are retiring with nobody to pass them to.
That is a supply and demand tension. And supply/demand tensions have opportunities.
Building a business does not always mean starting from zero in a market that is already crowded. Sometimes the better move is stepping into something already built, in a sector most ambitious people are walking past.
If this made you think of something - a business you have noticed, an owner you know who is approaching retirement, or an idea you have been sitting on - hit reply. I would like to hear where your head goes.
Become an insider and read upcoming letters.
No spam, unsubscribe anytime.